Critical minerals have become central to global geopolitics due to their essential role in clean energy technologies and the growing competition to secure supply chains.

Middle East tensions involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran have intensified, raising concerns over global energy supply disruptions and higher transport costs, particularly affecting energy-importing economies in Asia. In Thailand, headline inflation remained negative at –0.88% YoY in February for the 11th consecutive month, while core inflation rose slightly and business sentiment improved. However, higher oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions could increase inflation and reduce GDP growth, given Thailand’s reliance on Middle Eastern crude imports.

ASEAN enters 2026 at a pivotal moment as Philippines assumes the ASEAN Chair amid evolving geopolitical and regional dynamics. Strategic competition between the United States and China continues to shape the region’s economic and political landscape, while internal challenges, including Myanmar’s instability and regional tensions, persist. At the same time, ASEAN is advancing initiatives in digital integration and energy cooperation, while expanding partnerships with actors such as Japan and the European Union to support stability and regional development.

Growth accelerated to 6.9 per cent year on year in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by strong performances in manufacturing, wholesale trade and finance & insurance.

Indonesia’s inflation in 2025 shifted from an unusually low start to a more normalized level by year-end, driven mainly by the expiration of temporary administered price measures rather than weak demand, with inflation closing the year at 2.92% (YoY) and remaining within Bank Indonesia’s target range.

Southeast Asia’s AI sector is entering a rapid growth phase, supported by strong government backing, rising digital adoption, and a young talent base. The AI market is projected to grow from US$4.3 billion in 2024 to over US$17 billion by 2033, with adoption potentially adding up to US$1 trillion to regional GDP by 2030.

As the world approaches 2026, rapid advances in digital, biological, and clean-energy technologies are reshaping economic structures, industries, and everyday life.

Indonesia’s strategic culture has long been anchored in the principle of bebas aktif—a free and active foreign policy rooted in nonalignment, strategic autonomy, and pragmatic engagement—which has guided the country from the Cold War to today’s era of intensified great-power competition.

Indonesia’s 2026 market outlook is shaped by a decisive shift toward pro-growth fiscal and accommodative monetary policies, supported by easing global financial conditions and expectations of U.S. rate cuts.