OECD Economic Outlook: Resilient Growth but with Increasing Fragilities

Global growth is holding up better than expected, supported by front-loaded trade, strong AI-related investment, and generally easier financial conditions, yet momentum is set to soften as higher tariffs, persistent policy uncertainty, and easing labour markets gradually weigh on demand. Inflation is drifting toward central bank targets but remains uneven across economies, with goods prices re-accelerating in some markets and services inflation proving sticky. Financial conditions have eased, though elevated asset valuations, rising long-term yields, and growing linkages with less-regulated financial entities underscore rising fragilities. Against this backdrop, restoring trade predictability, safeguarding financial stability, ensuring credible fiscal consolidation, and advancing structural reforms—particularly those that boost productivity and economic dynamism—will be essential to secure more resilient and sustainable global growth.

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