Competition among Thailand’s Three Largest Parties Deepens the Country’s Political Uncertainties

Thailand is entering a volatile pre-election period marked by intensifying competition among the People’s Party (PP), Pheu Thai, and Bhumjaithai (BJT), with Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and BJT currently holding the strongest advantage. PP remains the largest parliamentary bloc but faces internal backlash and serious legal risks tied to past lèse-majesté reform efforts, weakening its leadership and complicating its tactical support for Anutin. Pheu Thai is in the weakest position, grappling with repeated leadership disqualifications, Thaksin Shinawatra’s imprisonment, and declining political momentum. Leveraging incumbency and legal expertise, Anutin is well placed to manage constitutional reform and election timing, while the likelihood of a fragmented outcome points to another coalition government rather than a single-party majority.

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