Market Outlook Q4 2025
Indonesia is expected to enter the final quarter of 2025 with cautious optimism, as the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) faces a volatile environment shaped by both global and domestic factors. JCI is forecast to end the year near 8,000 despite heightened volatility from global and domestic uncertainties. Despite risks from the U.S. government shutdown, tight global liquidity, and continued foreign outflows, market sentiment may find support from Bank Indonesia’s rate cuts, MSCI rebalancing, and the traditional year-end rally in December. There are some key opportunities in energy, commodities, consumer staples, banking, and infrastructure sectors—benefiting from stable demand, downstream initiatives, and green transition themes. Meanwhile, the government’s additional fiscal stimulus targeting over 30 million families is set to strengthen household spending and sustain economic momentum toward year-end.