Global: The Conflict Playbook — Escalation, De-escalation, Negotiation, and Economic Risks

Thailand’s economic outlook has improved as 2Q26 GDP growth reached 1.9% YoY, exceeding expectations, supported by stronger private investment, exports, and inventory accumulation. Policy support, FDI, electronics, tourism, and continued investment are expected to sustain momentum through 2026. However, elevated household debt, weak income growth, high living costs, Middle East tensions, El Niño-related pressures, and potential U.S. Section 301 tariffs pose downside risks. Inflation remains elevated amid higher energy prices, while the Bank of Thailand continues to focus on domestic economic conditions. Overall, growth prospects have strengthened, although external risks and uncertainty over policy implementation remain significant.

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