Money Demand in Indonesia and Its Forecasting to 2033

Indonesia’s money demand is projected to rise steadily through 2033, driven primarily by sustained economic growth and deeper financial sector development, while short-term fluctuations respond to movements in interest rates, inflation, and access to electricity. Econometric and machine-learning models consistently show upward momentum, with the most accurate approach (SVM-Lin) estimating demand to reach roughly IDR 16.9 quadrillion by 2033. The forecast underscores the enduring centrality of cash in an economy where digital infrastructure remains uneven, highlighting the need for policymakers to manage liquidity, strengthen financial institutions, and ensure efficient cash production and distribution to maintain monetary stability.

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