Global: Edge of Stagflation — Geopolitical Shocks Begin to Bite and Continue to Unfold

Thailand’s economic outlook is moderating amid Middle East tensions, which are contributing to higher costs, softer tourism, and weaker domestic demand. Private consumption and investment show signs of easing, while exports face uncertainty from external risks. Fiscal pressures are rising due to expanded subsidies and limited policy space. Globally, growth is slowing as geopolitical developments increase inflationary pressures. Major economies face emerging stagflation risks and constrained policy responses, with the U.S., Europe, and China experiencing softer growth alongside elevated cost pressures and uncertainty.

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